California Golden Bears vs SMU Mustangs Predictions

California’s injuries favor SMU

No. 23 SMU hosts California with the stronger record and several Cal starters in doubt. Yahoo Sports / California Golden Bears On SI lists the Mustangs at 5-1 overall and 3-1 in the ACC, while the Golden Bears are 3-4 overall and 2-2 in conference play. SPF makes SMU an 18.5-point favorite with a -1100 moneyline and a total of 55.5.

California Golden Bears On SI reports that starting center Bastian Swinney and offensive tackle Jimothy Lewis Jr. are doubtful. Starting guard Sioape Vatikani is probable. Cal also will be without running backs Adam Mohammed and Carter Vargas and tight end Dorian Thomas, reducing the available help for an offense facing a large road spread.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is expected to start at quarterback for Cal, but coach Tosh Lupoi had not made the choice official when California Golden Bears On SI published its report. Receiver Ian Strong is probable, while Cooper Perry, Jordan King and Mark Hamper are doubtful. That uncertainty supports SMU as the likely winner, but it does not establish that the Mustangs will win by 19 or more.

Why the wager is a pass

The moneyline and spread both demand more certainty than the available performance data provides. SMU’s -1100 price carries little potential return, while Cal’s absences cannot by themselves justify laying 18.5 points.

Wise Guy Team, a college football betting-trends site, reported mixed sportsbook-specific action. DraftKings had 96% of moneyline tickets on SMU, but California drew 57% of its moneyline handle and 94% of Circa’s moneyline handle. DraftKings spread handle favored SMU 61% to 39%. Those limited samples do not supply a betting edge, so Pass is the prudent choice.