Iowa Hawkeyes vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Predictions

Minnesota's offense favors Iowa

Minnesota ranks 14th in Big Ten scoring at 20.0 points per conference game and 16th in total offense at 288.7 yards. The Gophers have converted only 12 of 41 third downs in league play, a 27.7% rate that makes an upset harder to trust.

The Minnesota Star Tribune reported that the Gophers entered their bye after a 41-13 loss at Purdue in which they scored one offensive touchdown. They also missed 19 tackles, according to Pro Football Focus, a costly flaw against a favored opponent.

Quarterback Drake Lindsey has completed 64.8% of his passes for 1,335 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions, with all five interceptions coming in the past four games. Running back Darius Taylor has managed 83 yards on 44 conference carries since returning from injury, leaving Minnesota without evidence of a dependable rushing threat.

Betting view

SPF lists Iowa as a seven-point road favorite and -258 on the moneyline, with Minnesota at +210 and the total at 40.5. Those prices make Iowa the expected winner, but there isn't enough information about the Hawkeyes' recent form, starters or injuries to justify laying seven points or paying the steep moneyline price. The same gaps make the total a pass.