St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

Short starts put the Cardinals’ bullpen in focus

Kyle Leahy hasn’t pitched beyond four innings in any of his past five starts, according to sports betting publication Action Network. Another short outing would leave St. Louis’ bullpen covering much of Thursday’s game at Pittsburgh. That’s the strongest matchup concern for the Cardinals, with SPF pricing the Pirates at -163 and St. Louis at +134.

Action Network lists Leahy and Paul Skenes as the probable starters for the 12:35 p.m. EDT game at PNC Park. Leahy carries a 3.65 ERA to Skenes’ 3.91, so those figures alone don't establish a Pittsburgh pitching advantage.

Pittsburgh’s moneyline requires roughly a 62% win probability to break even. Without confirmed lineups or information about bullpen availability, Leahy’s recent workload doesn’t establish that edge. The moneyline is a pass.

SPF lists the total at 6.5, with over -123 and under +102. Starter ERAs alone aren't enough to judge that number without a clearer picture of the offenses and available relievers. Pass on the total as well.