Western Kentucky
Hilltoppers
Spread
+2.5
NCAAF Predictions
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies Predictions
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 8:00pm EST at Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
@
New Mexico State
Aggies
Spread
-2.5
50%
50%
Spread
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +2.5
New Mexico State Aggies -2.5
Moneyline
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +114
New Mexico State Aggies -135
Total
Over 57.5 (-110)
Under 57.5 (-110)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
12 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Wes Salvato
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Abe Howland
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Garrett Perry
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Scott Steele
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Casper Kohke
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Brooke Smolka
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King Jon Sanderson
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Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Prediction: Hilltoppers Offer Value at +114
Analysis updated October 1, 2026 at 7:06 AM CDT
New Mexico State has the stronger rushing threat, but Western Kentucky’s recent quarterback play and cleaner execution support a low-confidence underdog lean.
New Mexico State’s quarterback choice matters
New Mexico State coach Tony Sanchez had not named a starting quarterback for Thursday’s Conference USA opener, according to the Albuquerque Journal. Trey Hedden completed 7 of 19 passes and threw two interceptions in a 42-18 loss to New Mexico before Adam Damante went 16-for-19 for 162 yards and two touchdowns. That uncertainty makes the Aggies difficult to back at -135 or minus 2.5.
The Aggies can reduce that pressure by leaning on James Jones. He leads Conference USA with 88.8 rushing yards per game and averages 6.23 yards per carry. New Mexico State also has committed six turnovers in its past two games, however, so a productive running game won’t help the favorite if those mistakes continue.
Why Western Kentucky is worth a look
Western Kentucky quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns against Mercyhurst in his previous game. The Hilltoppers have also scored touchdowns on eight of 11 red-zone trips, compared with six touchdowns in 10 trips for New Mexico State.
Western Kentucky averages 3.5 penalties and 28.5 penalty yards per game, while New Mexico State averages 7.0 penalties and 57.5 yards. That cleaner play supports WKU in a game priced within a field goal, though its minus-5 turnover margin is worse than the Aggies’ minus-3 mark and keeps confidence low. The Hilltoppers are the slight pick to win, with their +114 moneyline offering more value than New Mexico State at -135.
Pick
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Western Kentucky moneyline +114