Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Predictions

Misiorowski's workload matters at this price

The Brewers are -198 at home against a Rays team priced at +162. Axios Tampa Bay reports that Milwaukee finished 103-59 and swept the Dodgers in the NLCS, while Tampa Bay won 98 games and beat Cleveland in six games. Those results favor Milwaukee, but they don't make the Brewers an appealing bet at this price.

Jacob Misiorowski starts for Milwaukee against Nick Martinez. The Associated Press reports that Misiorowski threw 1,115 pitches at 100 mph or faster this season, but he failed to complete five innings in either of his first two postseason starts. His velocity can overwhelm hitters, though another short outing would shift more of Game 1 to Milwaukee's bullpen.

CBS Sports reports that Martinez logged 180 regular-season innings with a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Tampa Bay chose him even though Drew Rasmussen was available on full rest, with Rasmussen expected to start Game 2. Martinez's season numbers give the Rays a credible starter and make laying -198 harder to justify.

Betting outlook

Milwaukee is the likely winner, but the moneyline asks bettors to pay too much when Misiorowski hasn't worked five innings in a postseason start. The total is 6.5, with the over at -112 and the under at -108, but the available evidence doesn't support a wager on either side of that market. Pass.