Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Predictions

Smith faces a hot Pittsburgh lineup

Hagen Smith gives Chicago the strongest argument at SPF's matching -110 moneylines. StatMuse / Associated Press, which carries the AP matchup preview, lists the left-hander as the probable starter with a 0.56 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Pittsburgh's probable starter, Jared Jones, has a 4.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Those numbers favor Smith, though his innings total isn't provided, limiting how much weight to put on the gap.

Pittsburgh has gone 8-2 with a .279 batting average over its last 10 games, according to the same preview. Chicago is 3-7 and hitting .205 in that span. The Pirates' recent hitting makes backing Smith less straightforward than the ERA comparison suggests.

Chicago's 43-30 home record tips my winner pick narrowly toward the White Sox. But -110 requires a win rate above 52.4% to break even, and the pitching comparison and recent form don't establish that edge clearly enough. The moneyline is a pass.