Louisville
Cardinals
Spread
+6.5
NCAAF Predictions
Louisville Cardinals vs Ole Miss Rebels Predictions
Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 7:30pm EST at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
@
Ole Miss
Rebels
Spread
-6.5
50%
50%
Spread
Louisville Cardinals +6.5
Ole Miss Rebels -6.5
Moneyline
Louisville Cardinals +210
Ole Miss Rebels -258
Total
Over 55.5 (-108)
Under 55.5 (-112)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
8 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Tom Strickland
Total pick
Scott Steele
Total pick
Percy Walker
Spread pick
Carter Stevenson
Total pick
Casper Kohke
Total pick
Lane Gibson
Total pick
Robert Downes
Spread pick
Robert Downes
Total pick
Louisville vs. Ole Miss Prediction: Quarterback Edge Meets a 6.5-Point Spread
Analysis updated September 5, 2026 at 7:17 AM CDT
Trinidad Chambliss gives Ole Miss the stronger quarterback case. Louisville's returning rushing production leaves the betting margin less clear.
Experience favors Ole Miss
Ole Miss returns Trinidad Chambliss after he threw just under 4,000 yards in his first FBS season. Louisville is expected to start Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, who hasn't started a collegiate game, according to regional newspaper coverage from Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal via Yahoo Sports. That experience gap makes the Rebels my pick to win, but SPF's -6.5 spread requires a victory by at least seven points.
Associated Press identifies Sunday's game in Nashville as Week 1's only matchup between AP Top 25 teams: No. 9 Ole Miss against No. 24 Louisville.
The case for passing
Louisville has a way to ease Kienholz's workload. Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal via Yahoo Sports reports that Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown combined for 1,588 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 2025. Isaac averaged 8.8 yards per carry across nine games. If that rushing production carries over, Louisville could ask less of its inexperienced quarterback.
Those numbers don't establish how well Louisville will run against this defense or justify taking the Cardinals +6.5. With no clear edge on the margin, I'll pass on the spread. Ole Miss at SPF's -258 moneyline requires roughly a 72% win probability to break even, a threshold this matchup evidence doesn't establish. There's also too little evidence about pace and defense to recommend a bet on the 55.5 total.
Pick
Ole Miss Rebels
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass