Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 8:00pm EST at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Pelicans
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Pacers vs. Pelicans Prediction: Indiana Favored, but Injuries Make -155 Too Costly
Analysis updated October 21, 2026 at 1:19 AM CDT
The Pacers are the likely winners, but Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell are out, and the available evidence does not justify Indiana's -155 road price.
Pacers face immediate lineup questions
Indiana visits New Orleans for both teams' regular-season opener Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET. SPF lists the Pacers as -155 moneyline favorites and 3.5-point road favorites, with the Pelicans at +130 and +3.5.
NBA.com reports that Aaron Nesmith is out with a left hamstring strain and T.J. McConnell is out with a hamstring injury. Nesmith had appeared in the earlier probable starting five from Indiana Pacers / NBA.com, but no updated Pacers lineup has been confirmed. Those absences leave Indiana replacing a projected starter and a reserve ball handler.
Tyrese Haliburton produced 48 points and 15 assists across three preseason appearances, while Trey Murphy III returns after leading New Orleans with 21.5 points per game last season. Those individual details favor neither side strongly enough to overcome the lack of confirmed lineups and current team-level form.
Betting view
Vigged, an odds and betting-consensus site, reported that Indiana received 80% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline money across its sportsbook sample. That concentration shows strong support for the favorite, but it does not make -155 attractive.
Indiana is the more likely winner, but its absences and the limited opening-night evidence make the moneyline too expensive. New Orleans +3.5 and the 239.5 total also lack enough support for a recommendation. Pass.