Baltimore
Orioles
73-78
Moneyline
+113
MLB Predictions
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Predictions
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 7:10pm EST
@
New York
Mets
69-81
Moneyline
-136
50%
50%
Spread
Baltimore Orioles +1.5
New York Mets -1.5
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles +113
New York Mets -136
Total
Over 8 (-110)
Under 8 (-110)
Professional Picks
5 listed
Professional Picks On This Game
Rich Roth
Spread pick
Kevin McHughe
Spread pick
Kevin McHughe
Total pick
Stevie March
Spread pick
Abe Howland
Money pick
Orioles vs. Mets Prediction: Baz’s Lower ERA Doesn't Settle the Bet
Analysis updated September 15, 2026 at 5:12 AM CDT
Baltimore has the better record and the lower-ERA probable starter. Those numbers alone don't establish value against the favored Mets.
Probable pitchers and the price
Baltimore’s Shane Baz brings a 4.05 ERA to his probable matchup with Sean Manaea, whose ERA is 4.79. FanDuel Research, the sportsbook’s analysis publication, lists both pitchers for Tuesday’s game at Citi Field. That comparison gives bettors a reason to question the Mets’ -131 SPF moneyline, with the Orioles priced at +109.
FanDuel Research also lists Baltimore at 73-78 and New York at 69-81. The Orioles’ better record adds context, but season records and starter ERAs alone don't establish either team’s chance of winning this game.
Betting decision
Pass on the moneyline. New York’s -131 price requires a win probability above roughly 56.7% to break even, and the available matchup details don't support that estimate or a firm winner pick. Baltimore’s plus-money return isn't sufficient reason to bet the other side.
SPF lists the total at 8, with over -107 and under -113. That’s also a pass: the starters remain probable, and without confirmed lineups or bullpen availability, there isn't a sound basis for a run projection.
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass