Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Predictions

The pitching matchup tests Atlanta's price

Atlanta is -120 at SPF despite the weaker season numbers of its probable starter. FOX Sports / Associated Press lists A.J. Smith-Shawver with a 7.13 ERA and 1.75 WHIP, compared with Tampa Bay probable starter Freddy Peralta's 4.96 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. That comparison favors the Rays at +100, though Peralta's ERA gives little reason to expect him to shut Atlanta down.

The same report puts the Braves at 48-24 at home and the Rays at 38-33 on the road. Atlanta has also posted a 3.17 team ERA and a plus-6 run differential over its last 10 games, against Tampa Bay's 4.35 ERA and even differential. Those results make Atlanta my narrow winner pick, but the recent team ERA doesn't resolve the risk attached to Smith-Shawver. Pass on the moneyline.