Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Predictions

Boston gets the pick, but the moneyline is a pass

Boston’s probable starter Patrick Sandoval has a 4.41 ERA against Grayson Rodriguez’s 6.03, but his 1.74 WHIP is higher than Rodriguez’s 1.52. Those figures, reported by FOX Sports / Associated Press, leave a concern about baserunners for anyone backing the Red Sox at SPF’s -181. That price requires roughly a 64.4% win rate to break even.

Boston is the likelier winner based on its 79-65 record and the Angels’ 54-89 mark. Los Angeles is also 24-45 on the road and has hit .197 while losing eight of its last 10 games.

Boston’s recent pitching weakens the case for a wager. The Red Sox went 6-4 over their last 10 despite a 5.56 ERA and being outscored by 14 runs. I’d pass at -181; those results don’t establish value in the Angels at +149 either.

Availability and the total

The same report lists Boston’s Ceddanne Rafaela, Willson Contreras and Masataka Yoshida on the injured list, along with Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel. Those absences matter when weighing whether these offenses can exploit the probable starters.

SPF lists the total at 8.5, with over -117 and under -103. The starters’ ERAs suggest scoring opportunities, but the Angels’ recent hitting and the batting absences make the over difficult to back. Pass on the total.