New York
Mets
65-78
Moneyline
+100
MLB Predictions
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Predictions
Monday, September 7, 2026 at 1:10pm EST at loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
@
Miami
Marlins
72-72
Moneyline
-121
33%
67%
Spread
New York Mets +1.5
Miami Marlins -1.5
Moneyline
New York Mets +100
Miami Marlins -121
Total
Over 8 (-105)
Under 8 (-114)
Who wins this game?
Professional Picks
5 available
Professional Picks On This Game
Phillip Monteith
Money pick
Blake Mitchum
Total pick
Stevie March
Total pick
Jonah Black
Money pick
Carlos Nunez
Money pick
Marlins vs. Mets prediction: Miami's home record favors a win, but pass at -121
Analysis updated September 7, 2026 at 5:04 AM CDT
Miami is the tentative winner pick. Its recent pitching results make the moneyline less appealing than its home record suggests.
Home record gives Miami the edge
Miami's 43-29 home record is the strongest reason to favor the Marlins against a Mets team that's 31-38 on the road, according to FOX Sports / Associated Press. SPF lists Miami at -121 and New York at +100. Those records support picking Miami to win, but don't establish that its price is worth paying.
Eury Pérez is Miami's probable starter, with a 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 145 strikeouts. CBS Sports / Field Level Media reports that New York promoted probable starter Jonah Tong for this game; he enters at 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA. Those ERA figures alone don't establish a clear starting-pitching advantage.
Betting decision
Miami has gone 4-6 over its past 10 games with a 5.37 ERA, per FOX Sports / Associated Press. That recent pitching performance keeps me from backing the Marlins at a price that requires roughly a 54.8% win rate to break even. The moneyline recommendation is Pass.
The total of 8 doesn't offer a clear wager either. Miami hit .224 and New York .220 over their past 10 games, but the Mets also posted a 4.65 ERA during that stretch. Weak recent hitting supports the under; both teams' pitching results argue against it.
Pick
Miami Marlins
Confidence
low
Betting lean
Pass