NFL Predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Predictions

Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 1:00pm EST at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Pittsburgh

Steelers

Spread +4.5
@
New England

Patriots

Spread -4.5
50% 50%
Spread Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 New England Patriots -4.5
Moneyline Pittsburgh Steelers +185 New England Patriots -225
Total Over 41.5 (-105) Under 41.5 (-115)

Who wins this game?

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Patriots vs. Steelers: Cornerback Absences Test Both Defenses

Analysis updated September 20, 2026 at 5:20 AM CDT

New England is a 5.5-point favorite at SPF, but Pittsburgh's depleted receiving options make it harder to judge how much the Steelers can exploit Carlton Davis III's absence.

Missing pieces in the passing game

New England's secondary offers Pittsburgh a target, but the Steelers won't have wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. to help attack it. The New England Patriots report that cornerback Carlton Davis III is out with a neck injury and Pittman is out with a foot injury. Those absences pull in opposite directions when assessing Pittsburgh at SPF's +5.5.

The same team report expects Charles Woods to replace Davis, though that isn't a confirmed starting assignment. The Pittsburgh Steelers also list cornerback Joey Porter Jr. as out, giving New England a potential opening against a replacement in coverage.

Protection remains a question for both teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers injury report lists tackle Troy Fautanu as questionable with an ankle injury; New England tackle Dametrious Crownover is out with a knee injury, and offensive lineman Ben Brown is questionable with a knee injury. Their availability affects how well each offense can take advantage of the opposing secondary.

Betting outlook

SPF lists New England at -230 and Pittsburgh at +190, with a total of 41.5. The Patriots are the market's likely winner, but the injury reports alone don't establish whether they're worth backing to win or cover. They don't establish value on Pittsburgh, either. Pass, with no projected score.

Confidence low
Betting lean Pass
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